Lopez Obrador is the man to beat in Mexico in 2018

Significance

Preliminary results of the elections held on June 4 in four states indicate that President Enrique Pena Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) narrowly retained the key State of Mexico. In Coahuila state, the PRI appears to have narrowly defeated the conservative National Action Party (PAN), which won the governorship of Nayarit state comfortably, in coalition with the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Veracruz state -- which only elected municipal authorities -- saw a significant expansion of non-PRI mayors elected, though only three were independents.

Impacts

• The PAN and PRD may struggle to be competitive alone in 2018 vis-a-vis the PRI machinery or Morena’s outsider appeal.
• The PRD has yet to decide whether to continue its alliance with the PAN or seek a coalition with Morena ahead of 2018.
• The failure of independents to perform strongly in these elections suggest that they are unlikely to be competitive ahead of 2018.