Regional lead could be key to Burundian peace efforts

Subject

Burundian peace efforts.

Significance

On May 25, efforts to renew the Inter-Burundian Dialogue (IBD) ended in failure after chairperson Benjamin Mkapa, former president of Tanzania, refused to allow several high-profile Burundian civil society leaders to take part. The decision is the latest reason why opposition groups believe Mkapa should be removed from his position. Meanwhile, current Tanzanian President John Magufuli has argued that members of the East African Community (EAC) should refuse to back the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU until sanctions against Burundi are scrapped.

Impacts

• President Pierre Nkurunziza may further purge the security services of ‘disloyal’ officers.
• Armed opposition groups based in the DRC will pose an increasing security threat.
• The ongoing crisis will hinder Bujumbura’s ability to respond to food and fuel shortages.
• The ruling party’s youth wing, the Imbonerakure, may intensify both violent actions and rhetoric.