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Surrender to Riyadh will raise domestic risks for Doha

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Significance

The crisis between Doha and its rivals in the Arab world, led by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, has escalated further after yesterday's intervention by US President Donald Trump, who took credit for the move against Qatar's alleged terrorist financing. Six countries in the region have cut diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar.

Impacts

  • Whatever the resolution, the damage to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the idea of Gulf unity will be profound.
  • There will be a knock-on impact on other regional conflicts in which Qatar is involved, such as Syria, Libya and Yemen.
  • A sustained crisis would create upward pressure on oil prices, as traders worry about unpredictable developments.
  • Qatar's gas exports through the Dolphin pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains are unlikely to be disrupted.
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