Nigerian north-east relief gains could be reversed

Significance

Delivery of relief to 8.5 million people in north-eastern Nigeria is complicated by persistent insecurity due to the Boko Haram insurgency, the dependency of the aid community on military cooperation for access, alleged corruption and mismanagement by government agents and contractors, an uncertain domestic political situation and ambiguity about mid-term funding from international sources. These challenges have led to an enduring humanitarian disaster and the possibility of reversals on the regional security front.

Impacts

• Political uncertainty due to President Muhammadu Buhari’s poor health will hamper national efforts on the humanitarian front.
• An unimproved humanitarian situation will complicate the military’s counter-insurgency campaign, and harm long-term security efforts.
• Ongoing corruption revelations, particularly within the military, could undermine security sector and federal executive relations.
• Renewed Niger Delta militancy and pro-Biafra separatism could distract the federal government's attention from the north-east.