South Africa’s Zuma will limp on as ANC splits further

Significance

Earlier this month, the South African Council of Churches (SACC) and the Public Affairs Research Institute (PARI) released separate reports alleging a corrosive process of ‘state capture’ by influential business figures. Meanwhile, officials in the ANC’s alliance partners -- the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) -- are openly calling for Zuma's resignation.

Impacts

• If Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma triumphs in the ANC's leadership contest, COSATU could withhold support for the party at the 2019 elections.
• Support for both the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters will increase and hasten formal national coalition talks.
• The nascent left-wing United Front movement could draw support from the ANC if a coalition with new trade union SAFTU is formalised.
• Racial polarisation could worsen as ANC populists blame 'white monopoly capital' and 'foreign agents' for government failings.