Rwandan agriculture strategy unlikely to be replicated

Subject

Rwandan agricultural interventions.

Significance

On May 15, the IMF completed its latest Article IV consultation and review with Kigali, predicting a return to growth of 6.2% per annum. According to the Fund, the main driver of this rebound is the agricultural sector, which is rapidly recovering from a severe drought in 2015-16. President Paul Kagame’s ambitious national development plan, Vision 2020, aims for the country to achieve middle income status by 2025, with transformation of the agricultural sector crucial to this.

Impacts

• The government’s drought response will boost Kagame’s popularity among poorer rural households.
• However, if Kagame steps down after his next term in office, this could create disorder across many sectors.
• National-level disaster responses will prove more effective than their East African Community (EAC) equivalent.