Schulz is unlikely to be a threat to Germany's Merkel

Significance

This is the third defeat at the state level since former European Parliament President Martin Schulz became party leader at the beginning of the year, raising questions about his ability to mobilise voters in the general election on September 24.

Impacts

• A flare-up of the migrant crisis could bring the issue to the fore again and increase support for the AfD.
• In the absence of such a crisis, infighting and a lack of viable proposals on issues other than immigration is likely to limit its appeal.
• Both Merkel and Schulz would seek to strengthen the French-German axis in EU politics.