Libya's idiosyncratic history will slow peace progress

Significance

On April 25, Serraj asked Russia to help stop the conflict during a meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. Over a year since the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) was created in January 2016, the GNA has failed to end a situation in which rival administrations compete for the title and powers of national government that emerged in mid-2014.

Impacts

• Economic improvements will depend on sustained increases in oil production.
• State-owned companies, such as the National Oil Corporation, will continue trying to attract foreign business partners.
• Localised and short-lived escalations in fighting will remain a liability.
• Line ministries and local councils will function and maintain continuity of core services.