Somali piracy should stay below previous peaks

Significance

The announcement follows recent incidents and seizures that prompt concerns that large-scale piracy could return to Somalia. A spate of piracy between 2008-11 spurred international and global efforts to enhance maritime security. Maritime actors will look to assess whether past actions were successful at warding off the threat and what is the most advisable course to take to lessen piracy risks. This may include addressing both drivers on land and marine developments.

Impacts

• International cooperation to counter piracy has proven relatively effective; efforts are likely to continue at reduced levels.
• Having been marginalised, African states play a smaller role in the counter-piracy efforts but will remain a major victim.
• An increase in piracy could result in elevated shipping costs when transiting near or through determined hotspots.
• Incidents off the Somali coast could dip in the coming months with the onset of the monsoon and resulting rough seas.