Chile election outcome could bring surprises

Subject

The November 19 general elections.

Significance

Ahead of November presidential and congressional elections, divisions within the centre-left government coalition and questions about its future have been accentuated by the Socialist Party’s choice of Senator Alejandro Guillier, an independent, as its presidential nominee, rather than former President Ricardo Lagos (2000-06), a longstanding member of the party.

Impacts

• A recent increase in local share prices suggests that the prospect of a Pinera government would boost flagging business confidence.
• The Bachelet administration’s low approval rating, currently around 25%, will be an electoral liability for the government coalition.
• The next Congress is likely to be more atomised and, for the government, more difficult to manage.