Crisis over Lebanon’s electoral law will intensify

Significance

The country’s various sectarian groupings have been unable to agree on a new electoral law in time for polls due on May 21. After the failure of a last-ditch committee of cabinet ministers formed on April 10 to reach a compromise, parliament was due to debate a motion to extend its mandate for a third time since its election in 2009. This would have ignited massive popular protests.

Impacts

• Elections will now face further delays, which could become indefinite.
• Either constitutional vacuum or parliament renewing its own mandate would likely mobilise broad popular street protests.
• Prolonged uncertainty could strengthen Hezbollah’s ability to operate without oversight as an actor independent of the Lebanese state.