Tensions on the Israel-Syria-Lebanon border will rise

Significance

This followed the first-ever operational launch of the longer-range Arrow ballistic missile defence system (initially introduced in 2000), when an Arrow-2 missile interceptor on March 17 successfully shot down a Syrian S-200 missile launched at Israeli jets. Tensions on Israel’s northern border are at the highest level since the 2011 outbreak of the Syrian civil war.

Impacts

• Hezbollah’s efforts to acquire precision weapons will ensure ongoing Israeli military operations against the group in Lebanon and Syria.
• In the event of an accidental strike on Russian forces, Israel would be vulnerable to Russia’s advanced anti-aircraft and radar systems.
• Any future Hezbollah-Israel war would massively damage Lebanese infrastructure and trigger an evacuation of Israel’s northern communities.