A transitional UK-EU Brexit deal is likely

Significance

The nature of Brexit and its medium-term implications will only become clear as the negotiations surrounding Article 50 and any longer-term trade deal get under way. The nature of these talks is thus of profound significance.

Impacts

• Difficult Brexit negotiations and a slowdown of economic growth in the United Kingdom could fuel support for Scottish independence.
• Support for EU membership in the remaining member states could rise as the long-term consequences of Brexit become apparent.
• It is highly unlikely that other member states will leave the Union in the foreseeable future.