ZANU-PF divisions will undermine Zimbabwean elections

Significance

The succession struggle within ZANU-PF to replace Mugabe -- widely believed to be physically incapable of serving more than one additional term in office -- has led to intensified intra-party conflict as rival factions compete for control of key state institutions. Both the Lacoste and the G40 factions of the ruling party are attempting to monopolise the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) and appoint the new chief justice, hoping to control the 2018 election results and the ruling party thereafter.

Impacts

• Continued political uncertainty and international criticism will deter investment, hurting the prospects of economic recovery.
• The 2018 elections are likely to be of a lower democratic quality than 2013, generating opposition protests and international condemnation.
• The ruling party may call a snap election as a result of either further economic decline or Mugabe’s failing health.