Tensions will rise as Montenegro 'coup' comes to trial

Subject

The authorities’ allegations that members of Russia’s security services were involved in a failed plot to overthrow the government last October.

Significance

Recent press reports quoting official Whitehall and NATO sources have backed allegations of a Russian-assisted coup plot, which Moscow has strongly denied. Montenegrin officials including former Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic claim the aim was to prevent Montenegro joining NATO. Leaders of the pro-Russian opposition bloc, the Democratic Front (DF), whom the authorities accuse of complicity, have denounced it as ‘fake news’ concocted by the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and its allies to maintain their quarter-century-long hold on power.

Impacts

• Montenegro is on course to join NATO but full ratification may await the Dutch elections and the Trump presidency’s settling in.
• Accusing Moscow of planning a coup will set back political relations despite Russia's prominence in tourist and property markets.
• Good relations with Serbia will continue, with Vucic equally aware of the need for care as Russia strengthens its Western Balkan presence.
• Montenegro will continue to make progress towards EU membership with the possibility of joining as early as the start of the next decade.
• London will try to reinvigorate its influence in the region post-Brexit by supporting Podgorica against threats to its pro-Western stance.