European defence spending may increase modestly

Significance

Along with previous remarks about NATO’s obsolescence, this has put a sharp focus on the disparities in both spending and military capabilities between the United States and Europe.

Impacts

• The expected modest increases in defence spending will likely be invested primarily in boosted readiness and equipment buys.
• European countries will increase their focus on developing the EU’s defence identity to strengthen their capacity to operate independently.
• It is unclear whether the modest increases will satisfy Trump or defence spending will continue to be a source of friction.