Mexico security may deteriorate further in 2017

Subject

Crime trends in Mexico.

Significance

Presidential candidate for the leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador last week condemned Mexico's war on drugs, claiming that failed security policies had led to “a massacre a month”. Initially announced in 2006 by then-President Felipe Calderon (2006-12), and continued since by President Enrique Pena Nieto, the war on drugs has led to a militarisation of policing in many parts of Mexico, which, rather than alleviating violent crime, has arguably exacerbated it, resulting in human rights violations and civilian casualties.

Impacts

• Real security improvements require institutional transformation that would only see results in the medium-to-long term.
• Washington's newly protectionist and isolationist stance could exacerbate economic hardship and insecurity in Mexico.
• Power struggles within the Sinaloa Cartel could be bloody, exacerbating insecurity, particularly in Mexico’s north-west.