Russian market is main hope for Belarus economy

Significance

Despite a war of words over food sourced from Belarus, Russia maintained its overall level of imports from the country last year. Belarusian exports to most of the world fell away, largely thanks to a fall in refined petroleum product sales caused by a sharp reduction in Russian crude oil deliveries, contributing to a second year of recession.

Impacts

• As Russian financial aid dwindles, Belarus will seek IMF loans.
• Access to Russian markets will be used as leverage to force Minsk to sell state-owned industrial assets to Russian buyers.
• The opposition will cite the recession in calling for regime change, but is too weak and fragmented for effective action.
• Belarus's multiple disputes with Russia will erode confidence in the Eurasian Economic Union among other members.