Dutch election could be two-party race

Significance

Months of negotiations between the government, parliament and EU member states on the Netherlands’ approval of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement -- which Dutch voters rejected in a referendum last April -- damaged the electoral prospects of Rutte's Liberal Party (VVD). However, he reached a provisional deal in December. His success in temporarily parking this contentious issue comes amid the unfolding of a two-party race between the VVD and the PVV in the final weeks before the elections on March 15.

Impacts

• If the VVD stays in power for another term, a referendum on EU membership is highly unlikely.
• The VVD’s tougher stance on immigration and integration could attract right-wing voters and make it a more tempered alternative to the PVV.
• The Labour Party may shift its focus from economic to social issues to differentiate itself from the VVD and attract left-wing voters.