China positions itself to exploit 'America First'

Significance

Trump affirmed US commitment to the 'one-China policy' vis-à-vis Taiwan, which he had questioned following his election. Nevertheless, Trump's willingness to raise the issue in the first place -- and his other post-election comments on North Korea and the South China Sea -- lead Beijing to expect an unprecedentedly rocky relationship with Washington during his term.

Impacts

• Trump seems now to accept that questioning the one-China policy is taboo, but he could still provoke Beijing regarding Tibet.
• The combination of uncertain US policy and a China-sceptic government in Taipei will prompt Chinese preparations for a worst-case scenario.
• US-Russia rapprochement could complicate Beijing's strategic partnership with Moscow.
• Other governments stand to benefit from a Chinese 'charm offensive', as Beijing attempts to win friends rather than confront Washington.