New AU chair shows regional dynamics will persist

Significance

The AU Commission is effectively the secretariat of the AU. It has significantly less influence than the AU Assembly of Heads of State and Government, which determines AU policy and is currently headed by Guinean President Alpha Conde. However, the AU Commission plays an important role in shaping the rhetorical focus of the body and has the potential to draw attention to continental challenges. The position is also symbolically important -- competition for the post is fierce -- and highlights the ongoing battle for supremacy between different regional blocs.

Impacts

• Regional competition will obstruct the cohesiveness of the AU.
• Multiple political crises on the continent will persist this year, challenging the AU’s efficacy.
• Statements of collective animosity toward the International Criminal Court (ICC) will not prompt a mass withdrawal.
• Faki will try to re-build bridges with Kenya and Senegal, whose candidates failed in bids for the Chair.