Key challenges to redefine Mexico’s political balance

Significance

A January 18 Reforma survey showed President Enrique Pena Nieto’s popular approval rating to have plummeted to 12%, from 24% in December. With US President Donald Trump’s first days in power suggesting turbulent times ahead, Pena Nieto’s government looks set to struggle.

Impacts

• The remainder of Pena Nieto’s administration will see governability problems that could exacerbate crime and economic hardship.
• The outcome of June’s four state elections will have a significant impact on the presidential elections of 2018.
• Pena Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) is unlikely to win in 2018.
• The conservative National Action Party (PAN) has the potential to succeed the current government if it avoids internal strife.
• The radical leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA)’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will benefit from PRI weakness.