Africa will use China-Taiwan divides for domestic gain

Significance

Several African countries have recently downgraded Taiwan’s standing in their diplomatic affairs or have severed ties in favour of relations with Beijing. Political jockeying between China and Taiwan allows African governments to exploit these strained relations to achieve economic targets and leverage tensions as a proxy for homegrown political battles.

Impacts

• Loss of African allies will have little material impact on Taiwan but will tie African states closer to China.
• Taiwan will likely adopt a city-to-city rather than country-to-country foreign policy.
• South Africa’s ANC will use the opposition's courtship of Taiwanese investment to mobilise support against it ahead of the 2019 elections.