Turkey's Iraqi-Syrian Turkmen policy will backfire

Subject

Ankara’s policy towards Iraqi and Syrian Turkmen.

Significance

Turkish-speaking Turkmen are Iraq's third-largest ethnic group, behind Arabs and Kurds, and accounted for an estimated one-tenth of Syria’s pre-civil war population. Turkish policy has deepened sectarian divisions among Iraqi Turkmen. In Syria, they have become identified with Ankara’s expansionist ambitions.

Impacts

• Failure to confront IS at al-Bab has ended any lingering hope of turning Turkmen militias into an effective fighting force.
• The long-term security and prosperity of the Turkmen may depend on subordinating ethnic identity to one of sectarianism or place.
• Most Syrian Turkmen who have fled to Turkey will probably remain once the Syrian civil war is resolved, fearing hostility on their return.