Kurdish-Turkish spat may save Islamic State in Syria

Significance

The Kurdish-dominated SDF, with weapons and air support from the US-led coalition fighting IS in Iraq and Syria, on November 5 launched a campaign to encircle and eventually seize Raqqa. The Wrath of the Euphrates offensive made some progress against outlying villages to the north of the city, and on December 10 began a second phase to take territory to the west.

Impacts

• Turkish-US relations could worsen as Ankara confronts the SDF and engages more deeply with Moscow.
• Turkey could use the non-jihadi Syrian opposition in Syria’s north more openly to confront the Kurdish forces.
• IS, although weakened, will survive into the medium term owing to cleavages and disputes among its many enemies.