Qatar could become a low-profile mediator

Significance

This followed Qatar's December 14 rejection of Egyptian charges that it had assisted the Islamist perpetrator of a bomb attack on a cathedral in Cairo. The accusation is the legacy of a pre-2013 era of activist foreign policy and support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Under pressure from Saudi Arabia and others, the country has since returned to the Gulf Arab fold, but relations with Egypt remain tense.

Impacts

• Even if recovering energy prices ease the fiscal situation in 2017, foreign policy is likely to be cautious.
• The legacy of previous unsuccessful mediation efforts in Yemen could compromise Qatar’s role in conflict-resolution efforts.
• Qatar is not as strongly involved in Libya as before, but maintains low-profile ties with Tripolitanian, Islamist-leaning groups.
• Ties with Riyadh could strengthen further after a high-profile visit by King Salman on December 5.