Russia will opt for caution while Trump settles in

Subject

Moscow's evolving response to Donald Trump's election win.

Significance

Incoming US President Donald Trump has made clear his desire to change policy on Russia in both style and substance. However, the relationship is constrained on both sides by domestic political factors and conflicting national interests. Satisfaction in Moscow at Trump's victory and Hillary Clinton's defeat is tempered by sober calculations about whether expressions of goodwill will translate into positive shifts in a troubled relationship.

Impacts

• Political discourse in Russia must adapt to the new reality of a US leader who says he wants dialogue.
• Moscow will refrain from hasty, potentially provocative moves during the US transition.
• Fears about US intentions may push Ukraine and NATO's eastern members to harden military postures against Russia.