Trump win may benefit China in ASEAN and Cambodia

Subject

Cambodian politics and foreign relations, including Beijing and Washington.

Significance

Following up on his pre-election enthusiasm for the Republican candidate, Prime Minister Hun Sen congratulated US President-elect Donald Trump on his election win on November 9. In the wake of the October 13-14 visit of China's President Xi Jinping to Cambodia, this is adding to media speculation about what Trump's policy towards South-east Asia might be, and how it might affect Cambodian domestic politics and the dynamics of the Beijing-Phnom Penh relationship.

Impacts

• Western calls are unlikely to be the catalyst for improvements in Cambodian human rights and democracy.
• The Cambodian People's Party will leverage Chinese development aid to try to gain electoral advantage.
• Cambodia's opposition could suffer electorally because of operating constraints.