New Iraqi Kurdish divisions could weaken Iran

Significance

The PUK and KDP are the two ruling parties and historic rivals in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). They manage competing political and security structures. The PUK generally has better relations than the KDP with Iranian-backed Shia groupings in Baghdad, making it an important ally for Tehran. However, it is also internally fragmented. Some members split off in 2009 to form a third party, Gorran (Change), and intra-PUK divisions have deepened further in 2016.

Impacts

• PUK factionalism will erode decision-making structures, especially in the party's stronghold of Suleimaniya.
• Political instability could create new barriers to foreign investment.
• Strengthening of the KDP at the expense of the PUK would facilitate a larger US military footprint in the KRI.
• Iran would seek to lobby Gorran and any new PUK splinter group to promote its interests.