Security frames Central African Republic's prospects

Significance

The election of President Faustin Archange Touadera in February may start a transition away from a prolonged political crisis and associated insecurity. CAR still confronts daunting obstacles along the path to stability, effective governance and the restoration of normal economic activity.

Impacts

• Armed groups will try to maintain control of economic resources while avoiding confrontation with UN forces.
• Protracted displacement and food insecurity will prolong donors' humanitarian engagement.
• DDR failure could incentivise a return to armed conflict, especially if economic commitments are unrealised.