Protests and China pressure weaken Taiwan government

Subject

Political and foreign policy outlook for Taiwan.

Significance

The Kuomintang, Taiwan's main opposition party, has seized on stalled cross-Strait relations and domestic discontent with Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, to re-energise itself after being trounced in January's presidential contest. Kuomintang mayors have sought to jump-start cross-Strait relations by conducting diplomacy in visits to China, and party leaders have attempted to harness public anger over pension reform to damage the president.

Impacts

• Beijing will be reluctant to reward Tsai in the absence of official talks on further cross-Strait economic deals.
• The United States will press Tsai to resume official negotiations with China to avoid destabilising the Taiwan Strait.
• The Kuomintang will begin to rebuild grassroots support, but its current leader, Hung Hsiu-chu, will remain divisive.
• Beijing will use dropping numbers of cross-Strait tourists as a lever to press Taipei to resume cross-Strait talks.