The political future of Colombia's FARC is bleak

Significance

The meeting has been markedly less militaristic than previous gatherings, with unarmed FARC leaders in civilian clothes, addressing the group on demobilisation and their transition towards becoming a peaceful political movement. It has also been unusually open, with representatives from both the government and the international press being granted unprecedented access.

Impacts

• While FARC leaders will have a quick transition to civilian life, mid- and low-ranking members will struggle.
• Power shifts in rural, former FARC-dominated areas could be bloody.
• In the long term, FARC fracturing and political instability in Venezuela could give rise to new cross-border criminal organisations.