Pakistan-China defence ties will develop cautiously

Subject

Outlook for Pakistan-China security relations.

Significance

Pakistan's cabinet in July approved a plan to seek a long-term defence and security cooperation agreement with Beijing, Pakistan's media reported last week. Beijing may be receptive to the idea but there would be significant risks for China from being more closely tied to Pakistan.

Impacts

• A comprehensive Pakistan-China security pact would compel India to broaden its alliances and take defensive countermeasures.
• The interplay of conflicting interests in the India-Pakistan-Afghanistan-China region would become more complex.
• US influence in Pakistan would be further diminished by the resulting increase in Chinese influence.