Philippines institutional erosion likely to intensify

Significance

Duterte is a powerful president with strong support among elected Philippine politicians and the public. Nevertheless, his methods are stoking controversy with concerns of an 'elected dictatorship' which could undermine Philippine judicial, legislative and executive institutions' integrity.

Impacts

• Investor concern is unlikely unless they perceive that the crime crackdown is out of control.
• Growing personalisation of political power will weaken the congress, including its capacity and will to scrutinise laws.
• The medium-term risk to institutional stability and credibility could see ratings downgrades.
• Equally, a successful crime crackdown could aid economic growth and internal security.