Scope of Turkey's Syrian incursion will be limited

Subject

Turkey's limited options in Syria.

Significance

Although it ostensibly targeted Islamic State group (ISG), Turkey's military incursion into northern Syria primarily aimed at preventing the Democratic Union Party (PYD) from extending its territory. Ankara's decision to launch the incursion was partly driven by domestic considerations, but has further strained Ankara's already very tense relationship with Washington, caused alarm in Russia, Iran and the Middle East, and further complicated international efforts to combat ISG.

Impacts

• Turkish-backed forces' unprovoked attacks on the PYD have infuriated Washington, and will deepen the crisis in bilateral ties.
• Turkish troops' presence in a former Ottoman province will exacerbate Sunni Arab states' concerns about Ankara's neo-Ottoman ambitions.
• Syrian Kurdish distrust of Ankara has worsened and may lead to intensified PKK violence inside Turkey.