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Revived Russian-Turkish gas project is less ambitious

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Subject

The decision to restart the TurkStream natural gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey.

Significance

The agreement on August 9 between Russian and Turkish Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan to resume the TurkStream project relaunches their partnership in the energy sector. This had been frozen as a result of Turkey's shooting down of Russian Su-24 jet last November.

Impacts

  • Turkey could start importing up to 15.75 bcm additional natural gas under the Black Sea by 2019.
  • Such a reduced amount compared with the original plan would seem to allow room in the Turkish gas market for rival suppliers.
  • TurkStream could be extended into the EU only if the European Commission and Gazprom compromise on third-party access to the pipeline.

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