Racial divisions will shape 2016 election outcome

Subject

Race relations and the 2016 US election.

Significance

Race relations have taken a central role in the 2016 US presidential election. Since the 2014 death of Michael Brown at the hands of police in Ferguson, Missouri, many subsequent police killings of African Americans have attracted national attention, a social protest movement has arisen, and two separate alleged 'revenge' attacks by gunmen in Dallas and Baton Rouge in July killed eight police officers. Both the Republican and Democratic national conventions conveyed exceptionally high levels of vitriol toward their respective opponents and an incompatibility of worldview, as illustrated by respective arguments about the state of race relations in the United States.

Impacts

• Trump will stake his bid on high turnout and broader support from the white electorate, but may struggle with degree-holding professionals.
• Strong surrogates, such as Barack and Michelle Obama, will help Clinton with outreach to non-white voters.
• The US electorate may be older and whiter than exit poll data suggest.