Oligarchic influence will slow Ukraine's progress

Subject

Government vulnerability to powerful commercial interests.

Significance

Despite a change of prime minister in April, governance in Ukraine remains the preserve of a circle around President Petro Poroshenko. These insiders show little sense of urgency on economic reforms or other matters of public concern including the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and maintain strong links with business 'oligarchs' who own much of the country's wealth and economic assets. Oligarchic funds and media shape the political process, and the political establishment owes them too much to declare war on them.

Impacts

• Moscow will seek ways of infiltrating mainstream politics via oligarchic contacts.
• When the IMF meets in July, will likely conclude that Ukraine has done enough to merit a tranche payment.
• Prosecutors have a long way to go to show that corruption investigations do not target only government opponents.