Chinese cyberattacks will become smarter

Subject

China's cyber capabilities.

Significance

Recent evidence suggests that domestic reform, US pressure and greater prominence of cyber affairs have pushed down the number of cyberattacks from China.

Impacts

• Beijing and Washington may move towards establishing norms for state behaviour in cyberspace.
• The objective of Chinese attacks will likely shift from data exfiltration to surveillance and monitoring.
• China's military and private firms will work together more closely in cyberspace.
• China will become a more formidable force in cyber-intelligence (as opposed to commercial cyberespionage).
• Better intelligence could help Beijing avoid overestimating foreign threats.