Kenya will leverage threats of camp closure

Significance

Grandi is the latest high-profile figure to urge the government to reconsider its position. Should Dadaab close, over 340,000 refugees would in total be forced from Kenya, creating a potential humanitarian crisis with security implications.

Impacts

• Kenya may leverage the refugees to secure greater financial and political assistance from the international community.
• The West's struggle to manage migration crises elsewhere will pressure donors to prevent another large-scale displacement.
• The UN may increase the rate of assisted returns of Somalis if conditions in Somalia improve.
• Kenya would remain susceptible to future al-Shabaab attacks even if Dadaab closes.