Belarus will contest gas price as Russia's charms fade

Subject

Arguments about gas prices as a reflection of deteriorating relations.

Significance

Attempts by the Belarusian government to secure a lower price for gas imported from Russia have political undertones. The government is cautiously distancing itself from Moscow while signalling an openness to improved ties with the West. A long-term energy security programme adopted in December 2015 sets out steps towards diversifying fuel imports and would, if successful, undermine Russia's role as monopoly supplier.

Impacts

• Reduced economic reliance on Russia is likely to be accompanied by greater political frictions.
• A worsening relationship could prompt Moscow to consider covertly undermining the Belarusian leadership.
• The government is unlikely to institute democratic and human rights reforms.
• This reluctance to change will be a constraint on closer EU ties.