NATO Baltic exercises will prompt risky behaviour

Significance

BALTOPS 16 will be the largest NATO maritime exercise in the Baltic Sea in recent years. The exercise is also held mere weeks before NATO's July 8-9 summit in Warsaw, and therefore serves as a tangible prelude to the alliance's intent to address renewed Russian security challenges in the region.

Impacts

• Improvements in Western missile defence systems will make it more difficult politically to undergo arms control cooperation with Moscow.
• Poland's military modernisation programme will boost its ability to be a security partner of the Baltic states.
• Washington is unlikely to approve a permanent US military presence in the Baltic states in the near-to-medium term.