Violence threatens Russian stability plan for Dagestan

Subject

Russian subsidies as a way of pacifying Dagestan.

Significance

Moscow's policy of subsidising the North Caucasus is designed to starve Islamic militant groups of recruits and funding by reducing unemployment and curbing the shadow economy. Dagestan's ethnic complexity and long-standing militant presence make it a particular flashpoint. Its leader has identified economic progress as the best way of countering insurgent activity, but a recent spate of attacks has shown the limits of this strategy.

Impacts

• Police and military components of the new National Guard are likely to be deployed to support Dagestan's police.
• Budget cuts may prompt Moscow to rethink its strategy of injecting funds into Dagestan, especially as attacks continue.
• Other regions of the Russian Federation will argue that they too deserve higher funding from Moscow.