Africa declining democratic norms portend instability

Significance

Although some countries have seen peaceful transfers of power to opposition parties -- such as in Cape Verde last month and Nigeria in March 2015 -- the trend is towards rising authoritarianism, declining respect for civil liberties, and opposition disillusionment with formal electoral politics.

Impacts

• In Niger, opposition parliamentarians' refusal to take up their seats will exacerbate disillusionment with formal politics.
• In Ivory Coast, the decision of pro-Gbagbo hardliners to boycott the 2015 poll will hasten opposition clefts, strengthening the president.
• The new Beninois president's plan to limit future presidents to one five-year term will likely face resistance from parliamentarians.