ISG is unlikely to infiltrate refugee flows to Europe

Subject

ISG infiltration of refugee flows.

Significance

Refugee arrivals in Europe in 2016, large if not at 2015 levels, will put yet more pressure on the EU, which is already struggling to address economic crises, political polarisation and inter-state divisions on how to address security crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. Suspicions have grown that among the refugees are operatives of the Islamic State group (ISG).

Impacts

• ISG's foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria will seek to expand their relationships with existing extremist networks in Europe.
• Speculation over ISG's presence within refugee flows will continue, especially as far-right parties continue to perform well in elections.
• The EU-Turkey deal may slow refugee flows, but the existing numbers of refugees will continue to attract suspicion from authorities.