Cabinet change in Ukraine is delayed, but inevitable

Subject

Prospects for coalition survival in Ukraine.

Significance

Since Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk survived a no-confidence vote on February 16, the political atmosphere has remained febrile. Cabinet continuity will be greeted with relief, given the overriding need for political stability and functioning institutions. The vote leaves deep divisions between the main parties, which are now lobbying for early elections or a delay, depending on how they think they would fare.

Impacts

• A reshuffle that retains Yatsenyuk will keep alive hopes of unblocking IMF funding.
• Even if snap elections are averted, protracted instability in government will negatively affect the economy.
• If the crisis is resolved, the president will emerge with more influence over both government and Rada.