French missions abroad will strain army but continue

Subject

France's military and police over-stretch.

Significance

With 34,000 troops engaged in operations, 10,000 of them abroad, France's military forces will be under severe strain in 2016. The police and gendarmerie workload has also increased, after two major terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015 that presented a long-term challenge to domestic security. President Francois Hollande has modified the Military Planning Law to take the new security situation into account and boosted France's military effort. However, influential voices are raising concerns about sustainability and expressing doubts about the relevance of France's international stance and home security approach.

Impacts

• The military top brass is likely to intensify pressure on the executive, to secure more means as the presidential election approaches.
• More than ever, the defence budget will rely on extra-budgetary resources, such as arms exports, especially of Rafale jet fighters.
• Defence and foreign policies are thus poised to become even more interconnected, with strong efforts to sell arms to India and the Gulf.