Economic woes could raise tensions between the Sudans

Subject

Economic outlook for Sudan and South Sudan.

Significance

Earlier this month, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir ordered the border with South Sudan to be reopened. It was formally closed in 2011, though enforcement has eased since 2012 due to deepening economic cooperation, formalised in several agreements stipulating the financial terms for exporting South Sudanese oil through Sudan's pipelines to Port Sudan.

Impacts

• Russian opposition will probably scupper other UN Security Council proposals to impose an arms embargo on South Sudan.
• Growing -- albeit small -- numbers of Syrian refugees will likely settle in Khartoum, facilitated by their visa-free access to Sudan.
• Uganda and South Sudan will proceed on finalising demarcation of their common, disputed border, but localised tensions could persist.