Polls raise doubts over Bolivia referendum outcome

Significance

Two polls published in mid-January cast doubt on President Evo Morales' prediction of a sweeping victory. These polls, one predicting a narrow 'yes' victory, the other a narrow 'no', follow electoral reverses for the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) over the last year.

Impacts

• The poll results will force the MAS to abandon any complacency about victory.
• Morales will frame the campaign in personal terms, maximising his legitimacy.
• A 'no' victory would weaken the MAS government, undermine Morales's standing and betoken a divisive succession struggle.