Turkish gas supply could run short in February

Subject

Turkey's security of natural gas supply.

Significance

Turkey is heading into its winter peak demand for natural gas and power facing potentially damaging disputes with its two main gas suppliers -- Russia and Iran. The downing by Turkish jets of a Russian warplane in November has plunged relations to an all-time low while those with Iran have cooled markedly in the wake of Tehran's spat with Riyadh. If either or both cut gas exports to Turkey, the effects could be highly damaging.

Impacts

• Further talks on Russia's planned Turkstream pipeline seem unlikely.
• Transiting gas from Iraqi Kurdish-controlled areas to Turkey will damage Turkish-Iraqi relations.
• Over the longer term, securing further gas supplies from diverse sources would also make volumes available for transit to Europe.